The 30.5% Threshold: Why Polymarket's Iran War Contract Is a Macro Liquidity Signal, Not a News Item
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Fear
Market Sentiment
Team and early investor shares released
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
92 million ARB released
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Block reward halving event
Bitcoin Season
| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,441.2 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,877.58 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.75 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$569.7 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.1 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0725 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1650 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.77 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8166 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.4 |